Sure, people lined up at 5 a.m. Sure there was more live blogging and live Twittering than any one person could consume. But today’s MacWorld keynote was generally deemed a snore. Live Twitter comments ranged from “Meh” to “I hate this is considered big news” to “I just fell asleep.” There was no Steve Jobs and all about the Mac. In fact, the most buzzed about MacWorld artifact today was this Onion Video on the fictional MacBook “Wheel.” You know it’s boring when fictional product launches are stealing the spotlight.

More exciting—in a bad way—was yesterday’s Twitter hacking. Thirty-three celebrities from CNN’s Rick Sanchez to Britney Spears had their Twitter accounts hacked and at least from a wisecracking hacker’s point of view, hilarity ensued. The celebrities and Twitter didn’t find it so funny. Michael Arrington points the finger at someone called the “DigitalGangster” and expects some arrests to come. It’s unwelcome timing for Twitter, after a New York Times article last weekend trumpeted how many celebrities were embracing the site.

As 2009 gets going, we’re seeing more reports of layoffs and companies getting perilously close to shutting down, and there’s no doubt in my mind, a lot of them will be online video companies started in the wake of YouTube that never broke out in the same way. But the trend of watching videos online is soaring: comScore reported that time spent watching videos online jumped a whopping 40% in one year. The number of videos watched jumped 34%. The number of people watching videos online only rose 6% but that’s partially because it’s already about three-quarters of the entire Internet user base.

Clearly, this is no small trend and no flash in the pan. The question is whether existing players can survive the ad recession long enough to really develop businesses around it, or the next crop of online video companies will be the ones to reap the growing rewards.

Updated from 3:08 p.m. ET

Update: After trading as high as 9088 intraday, the Dow closed up 62 points, or 0.7%, to 9015 Tuesday, while the S&P gained 0.8% and the Nasdaq jumped 1.5%. Since hitting multiyear closing lows on Nov. 20, the Dow is now up 19.4%, while the S&P 500 is up 24.3% and the Nasdaq by 20%.

Earlier: Depending on your perspective, Something's Gotta Give is either a heart-warming love story, one of the worst Jack Nicholson movie ever made, or an apt description of the financial markets right now.

Focusing on the latter, the stock market on Tuesday continued its recent penchant for rallying despite (or maybe because of) grim economic data, including Monday afternoon's December auto sales, as well as reports issued today:

• Minutes of the Fed's Dec. 15-16 meeting show central bankers believed "the economic outlook would remain weak for a time and the downside risks to economic activity would be substantial."
• Pending home sales fell 4% to the lowest level on record;
• Factory orders declined 4.6% in November or twice the decline expected;
• At 40.6, the December ISM Services report was better than expected, but still showed the sector contracting for the third-straight month.

Meanwhile, as financials like Citigroup and Morgan Stanley and housing stocks like Pulte continue to rebound from the dregs of 2008, the rally is being led by early cyclical stocks -- on Tuesday including commodity producers like Freeport McMoran and Vale, and chip/equipment makers such as Applied Materials and Broadcom.

The strength in these economically sensitive names, as well as commodities themselves, reflects widespread expectations the U.S. economy is going to hit bottom sometime in mid-2009, be it because of massive government stimulus or the simple fact the recession will be atypically old by midyear.

But the action in stocks and commodities flies in the face of the economic data both here and abroad...

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From ClusterStock.com, Jan. 6, 2009:

Given Bernie Madoff's skill at hiding a massive Ponzi scheme for decades, plus his reported obsessive-compulsive attention to details, we need to ask the same question that several readers have asked. Was Madoff's mailing of $1 million-worth of jewels and other valuables to his sons, his brother, and some friends just another fraud?

Specifically, was this ploy designed to give Madoff's sons, Mark and Andrew, yet another chance to show prosecutors and the public how quick they are to report their father's wrongdoing, thus bolstering their contention that they knew nothing about the Ponzi scheme?

We are big believers in innocent-until-proven-guilty, and we do think it is possible that Madoff never brought Mark and Andrew (or his niece Shana) in on the Ponzi.  That said, we find it hard to believe that Madoff's sons didn't occasionally wonder why Madoff was so secretive about the investment business and why all Madoff Investments trades were made in Europe, instead of at the US broker dealer. We also wonder why they didn't have their personal money managed by Madoff.

And given Madoff's ability to hide the Ponzi for so long, we also wonder whether he has now staged not one but two opportunities for his sons to look innocent and curry favor with the government.  Specifically: ...

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See Also: Clever Madoffs Mail $1 Million Of Jewels To Friends, Family

There's no question, private company valuations are falling along with their publicly traded brethren. And Web 2.0 darling Facebook isn't immune. We all know it's not worth that posh $15 billion valuation Microsoft bestowed on it back in 2007. But how low has it fallen?

My guest blogger and investor Paul Kedrosky thinks it's under $1 billion, and I think he's mental. Watch the clip and pick a side! Also, if Facebook decides the ad market it too rocky to go it alone, who's the most likely buyer?

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In Saturday's New York Times, Michael Lewis argued that credit rating agencies, like Moody's and Standard & Poors should be restructured. He didn't mince words saying "the world is worse off for their existence."

So, asks my guest Paul Kedrosky, why even try to fix anything so bad?

Kedrosky, an investor and blogger, wants credit ratings agencies outlawed; capital punishment for the crime of helping create this credit disaster. 

He says analysis of bonds should be no different than stocks. The market may not be a perfect way to evaluate companies, but, says Kedrosky, it’s the best one we've got.

Click here and view our earlier discussion on how investors can profit from CES.

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The already crumbling housing market could plummet an additional 20%, says Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., and author of the popular INSIGHT newsletter.

Although housing is already down 25% peak-to-trough based on the latest S&P/Case-Shiller numbers, there's no near-term bottom in sight, says Shilling, one economist who presciently saw the crash coming.

Excess inventory - nearly a year's worth supply - is the "mortal enemy" of any recovery in housing, says Shilling, who does not believe the Fed's efforts to lower mortgage rates will resolve the crisis.  

Barring a prolonged period of weaker prices, Shilling believes only radical action - like bulldozing homes or letting immigrants into America to buy homes - can solve the crisis, as detailed here last month.  

Plus, Shilling's predictions for 2009. 

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If you're betting the economy will recover in the second half of this year and should be buying stocks now in anticipation, economist Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., isn't your guy. Shilling -- author of the popular INSIGHT newsletter -- says the recession will run for the duration of this year and stands by a forecast for the S&P 500 to hit 600 in 2009.

A recovery isn't likely until 2010 -- at the earliest -- says Shilling, who is effectively doubling-down on his 2008 predictions, which proved eerily prescient.

Shilling is bullish on the dollar and cautiously optimistic about high-grade corporate debt, but doesn't see much to be hopeful about from the long side in 2009.

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From ClusterStock.com, Jan. 5, 2008:

The NYT's Paul Krugman draws three lessons from the current debacle:

• 70 years of conventional wisdom since the Great Depression has been wrong: The Fed can't head off depressions with easy money. Thus, GD1 may have been un-preventable.  GD2 may be unpreventable.
• The only way to avoid GD2 (now) is frantic government spending (fiscal stimulus).
  
• The government is about to blow it.  Republican posturing suggests Obama will be forced to cut back and/or delay his spending plans in the name of "prudence" and "conservatism."

We'd add another possible lesson: ...

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Between MacWorld and the Consumer Electronics Show, investors (and reporters) can usually count on January to start out with a bang. But this year, Steve Jobs isn't attending MacWorld. And CES? Well, how exciting is a show about high priced gadgets, when no one has any money to spend.

But never fear: My guest Paul Kedrosky joined me to tell investors what he thinks the unsexy but potentially lucrative CES trend will be. Also, he weighs in on today's Sony drama.

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"The remedy for this nutritional problem is relatively simple and straightforward," Jobs said in a rare and remarkable statement, in which he reassured the Apple "community" that he will remain as CEO.

That's certainly good news for Jobs' fans and Apple shareholders, and hopefully Jobs' health concerns will truly be resolved. But today's announcement does not remove the controversy that has dogged the issue of Jobs' health for several months. In fact, today's news adds to speculation over whether Jobs and Apple should have and could have been more forthcoming about the CEO's health.

Consider the following when thinking about what Jobs and Apple knew, and when did they know it. ...

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